Management Guidance Summary
Short-Term (Q1 2026, Jan-Mar 2026)
- Revenue: ~$9.8B +/- $300M (+32% YoY), above consensus of $9.38B
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin: ~55%, up 130bps YoY
- Operating Expenses: ~$3.05B
- China MI308 Revenue: ~$100M included in guidance (down from ~$390M in Q4)
- Key commentary: "Second half a bit subseasonal to first half... even with PC market down, we believe we can grow our PC business" (Lisa Su). Data center expected to grow sequentially in Q1.
Long-Term (Full Year / Multi-Year)
- Revenue CAGR target: >35% over next 3-5 years
- EPS target: >$20 annual EPS in strategic timeframe
- Data center growth: >60% annually over next 3-5 years
- Margin trajectory: Expanding; MI450 ramp in H2 2026 expected to improve gross margins
- AI GPU roadmap: MI450 launching H2 2026, MI500 (2nm) in 2027
- Strategic priorities: OpenAI multi-gigawatt deployment starting H2 2026, Helios rack-scale systems, EPYC server share gains, enterprise AI expansion
Upside to Earnings & Multiples
Near-Term (0-6 months)
Q1 2026 guidance of ~$9.8B exceeded consensus of $9.38B, suggesting continued fundamental momentum. Non-GAAP gross margin expanding to ~55% from 54% year-ago indicates improving product mix. Data center sequential growth in Q1 despite typical seasonality signals strong EPYC and Instinct demand. The post-earnings 17% selloff creates potential for a relief rally if Q1 results exceed midpoint guidance. Near-term EPS upside of 5-8% vs consensus is plausible given recent beat history.
Medium-Term (6-18 months)
MI450 launch in H2 2026 represents a significant product cycle catalyst, expected to improve gross margins and compete more directly for hyperscaler AI workloads. The OpenAI multi-gigawatt deployment starting H2 2026 could meaningfully accelerate Data Center GPU revenue toward "tens of billions" by 2027. EPYC Turin platform ramp across 150+ OEM platforms driving server share gains. Embedded segment recovery expected with inventory digestion completing, providing an additional revenue tailwind.
Long-Term (18+ months)
Management's >35% revenue CAGR and >$20 EPS targets imply significant operating leverage ahead. MI500 on 2nm process technology (2027) positions AMD competitively in next-gen AI accelerators. Data center >60% annual growth trajectory would transform AMD into a $50B+ annual revenue company. Helios rack-scale AI systems expand AMD's addressable market beyond discrete GPUs. Enterprise AI adoption is still in early innings, with commercial EPYC deployments doubling YoY.
Potential Catalysts
- MI450 launch driving hyperscaler GPU wins in H2 2026
- OpenAI multi-gigawatt deployment accelerating AI revenue
- EPYC server share gains expanding above 30% market share
- China export restrictions tightening further on AI chip sales
- Gaming semi-custom revenue declining as console cycle ends
- PC market contraction from memory cost inflation reducing client revenue
Latest Quarter Results
Q4 2025 (Oct-Dec 2025) — Reported Feb 3, 2026
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.27B | +34% | Beat 6.4% ($9.65B est) | ~$9.8B (+32% YoY) |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.53 | +40% | Beat 15.9% ($1.32 est) | — |
| Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 57% (55% excl. MI308 reversal) | +300bps | — | ~55% |
| Stock Reaction | -17% (next day, Feb 4) | — | — | — |
Opportunities
- Record quarterly revenue of $10.27B with Data Center at record $5.4B (+39% YoY) driven by EPYC Turin and Instinct GPU momentum
- Client revenue grew +34% YoY to $3.1B with record desktop revenue and commercial sales up >40% YoY
- Gaming revenue rebounded +50% YoY to $843M on Radeon RX 9000 series and holiday demand
- OpenAI 6-gigawatt MI450-based deployment secured, with MI450 on track for H2 2026 launch
Challenges
- Stock plunged 17% despite record beat, as investors wanted stronger Q1 guidance and specific AI revenue targets
- China MI308 revenue dropping from ~$390M in Q4 to ~$100M in Q1 2026 due to tightening export controls
- Gaming semi-custom revenue faces significant double-digit declines as console cycle enters seventh year
- PC market headwinds expected in FY2026 from component cost inflation pressuring consumer demand
Q3 2025 (Jul-Sep 2025) — Reported Nov 4, 2025
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.25B | +36% | Beat 5.8% ($8.74B est) | ~$9.6B (+25% YoY) |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.20 | +30% | Beat 2.6% ($1.17 est) | — |
| Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 54% | Flat | — | ~54.5% |
| Stock Reaction | -3.7% (after hours) | — | — | — |
Opportunities
- Record quarterly revenue of $9.25B with broad-based growth across segments
- Data center revenue hit record $4.3B (+22% YoY) on EPYC and MI350 momentum
- Gaming revenue surged +181% YoY to $1.3B driven by semi-custom and Radeon
- OpenAI partnership announced for multi-gigawatt Instinct deployment
Challenges
- Stock fell 3.7% despite beat, reflecting investor concerns over AI growth trajectory
- Embedded revenue declined -8% YoY to $857M amid inventory digestion
- Higher inventory levels raised questions about demand sustainability
- Q4 guidance of ~$9.6B (+25% YoY) implied deceleration from Q3's 36% growth
Q2 2025 (Apr-Jun 2025) — Reported Aug 5, 2025
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.69B | +32% | Beat 3.6% | ~$8.7B (+28% YoY) |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.48 | -30% | Miss 2.3% | — |
| Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 43% (54% adj.) | -10pp (incl. charges) | — | ~54% |
| Stock Reaction | -6.3% (after hours) | — | — | — |
Opportunities
- Record total revenue of $7.69B with Client revenue at record $2.5B (+67% YoY)
- Strong Q3 guidance of $8.7B (+28% YoY) exceeded expectations
- Gaming revenue surged +73% YoY to $1.1B on semi-custom and Radeon demand
- MI400 series generating strong customer interest for large-scale 2026 deployments
Challenges
- ~$800M inventory charge from MI308 export controls crushed reported margins and EPS
- Data center revenue growth decelerated to +14% YoY vs +57% in Q1
- Embedded revenue declined -4% YoY to $824M with continued softness
- China GPU revenue outlook highly uncertain with license applications under review
Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar 2025) — Reported May 6, 2025
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.44B | +36% | Beat 4.2% ($7.13B est) | ~$7.4B (+27% YoY) |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.96 | +45% | Beat 2.1% ($0.94 est) | — |
| Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) | 54% | +200bps | — | 43% (incl. ~$800M charge) |
| Stock Reaction | +4.9% (after hours) | — | — | — |
Opportunities
- Data center revenue surged +57% YoY to $3.7B led by EPYC and Instinct GPU demand
- Client revenue jumped +68% YoY to $2.3B with record Ryzen ASPs
- MI350 sampling began; Oracle committed to multi-billion-dollar MI355x rollout
- Over 150 EPYC Turin OEM platforms expected to ramp throughout 2025
Challenges
- US export restrictions on MI308 expected to reduce FY2025 revenue by ~$1.5B
- Q2 guidance included ~$800M inventory charge, pressuring reported margins to ~43%
- Gaming revenue declined -30% YoY to $647M on console cycle weakness
- Embedded revenue flat at $823M, continued inventory digestion in industrial markets