What Metrics Move Stocks
| Mar '24 | Jun '24 | Sep '24 | Dec '24 | Mar '25 | Jun '25 | Sep '25 | Dec '25 | Mar '26 (E) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price | $180 | $162 | $164 | $121 | $103 | $142 | $162 | $214 | $242 |
| Stock QoQ | +22% | -10% | +1% | -26% | -15% | +38% | +14% | +32% | +13% |
| Revenue YoY | +2% | +9% | +18% | +24% | +36% | +32% | +36% | +34% | +34% |
| Op Margin | 1% | 5% | 11% | 14% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 17% | 15% |
| SUM=RevYoY + OM | 3% | 13% | 28% | 38% | 47% | 40% | 49% | 51% | 49% |
| TTM Op Profit ($M) | $2,028 | $2,315 | $2,813 | $3,493 | $4,256 | $4,677 | $5,291 | $6,133 | $6,951 |
| TTM OP QoQ | +14% | +14% | +22% | +24% | +22% | +10% | +13% | +16% | +13% |
| TTM FCF/OP | 58% | 59% | 55% | 69% | 65% | 86% | 103% | N/A | N/A |
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.8x | 0.6x | 0.5x | 0.5x | 0.8x | 0.7x | 0.6x | N/A | N/A |
(E) = Expected/Estimated | AMD FYE = December
Trend Analysis
- Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Over 8 quarters (Mar '24 to Dec '25), AMD stock rose ~19% ($180 to $214) while TTM OP surged ~202% ($2.03B to $6.13B). The stock dramatically underperformed TTM OP growth, reflecting severe multiple compression. Despite tripling operating profits, AMD's valuation contracted as the market rotated toward direct AI beneficiaries (NVIDIA) and penalized AMD's smaller AI GPU market share. Export control headwinds on MI308 chips further dampened sentiment throughout mid-2025.
- Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks SUM (RevYoY + OM) acceleration and TTM OP QoQ momentum. The strongest stock performance (+38% in Jun '25, +32% in Dec '25) coincided with SUM acceleration (40% to 49% to 51%) and TTM OP QoQ reacceleration from +10% back to +16%. The deepest declines (-26% in Dec '24, -15% in Mar '25) occurred when SUM was still building but export controls created uncertainty. TTM FCF/OP improvement from 55% to 103% through Sep '25 provided a supportive backdrop for the H2 2025 rally.
- Next Quarter Outlook: Management guides Q1 2026 revenue of ~$9.8B (+32% YoY) with non-GAAP gross margin of ~55%. SUM is expected to moderate slightly (49% vs 51%) as operating margin dips seasonally. TTM OP QoQ is expected to decelerate to ~+13% as the sequential revenue decline (-5% QoQ) reflects normal seasonality in client/gaming. However, TTM OP continues its strong upward trajectory toward ~$7B. Neutral to mildly bullish — the revenue guidance of $9.8B exceeded the $9.38B consensus, but the lack of specific AI revenue targets and China uncertainty weighed on market confidence, contributing to the post-earnings selloff.