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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

TTM Quarterly Earnings Analysis Report
Generated: February 9, 2026

Key Financials

Mar '24 Jun '24 Sep '24 Dec '24 Mar '25 Jun '25 Sep '25 Dec '25 Mar '26 (E)
Stock Price $180 $162 $164 $121 $103 $142 $162 $214 $242
Stock QoQ +22% -10% +1% -26% -15% +38% +14% +32% +13%
Revenue YoY +2% +9% +18% +24% +36% +32% +36% +34% +34%
Op Margin 1% 5% 11% 14% 11% 9% 14% 17% 15%
SUM=RevYoY + OM 3% 13% 28% 38% 47% 40% 49% 51% 49%
TTM Op Profit ($M) $2,028 $2,315 $2,813 $3,493 $4,256 $4,677 $5,291 $6,133 $6,951
TTM OP QoQ +14% +14% +22% +24% +22% +10% +13% +16% +13%
TTM FCF/OP 58% 59% 55% 69% 65% 86% 103% N/A N/A
Debt/EBITDA 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x 0.5x 0.8x 0.7x 0.6x N/A N/A

(E) = Expected/Estimated | AMD FYE = December

Trend Analysis

  • Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Over 8 quarters (Mar '24 to Dec '25), AMD stock rose ~19% ($180 to $214) while TTM OP surged ~202% ($2.03B to $6.13B). The stock dramatically underperformed TTM OP growth, reflecting severe multiple compression. Despite tripling operating profits, AMD's valuation contracted as the market rotated toward direct AI beneficiaries (NVIDIA) and penalized AMD's smaller AI GPU market share. Export control headwinds on MI308 chips further dampened sentiment throughout mid-2025.
  • Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks SUM (RevYoY + OM) acceleration and TTM OP QoQ momentum. The strongest stock performance (+38% in Jun '25, +32% in Dec '25) coincided with SUM acceleration (40% to 49% to 51%) and TTM OP QoQ reacceleration from +10% back to +16%. The deepest declines (-26% in Dec '24, -15% in Mar '25) occurred when SUM was still building but export controls created uncertainty. TTM FCF/OP improvement from 55% to 103% through Sep '25 provided a supportive backdrop for the H2 2025 rally.
  • Next Quarter Outlook: Management guides Q1 2026 revenue of ~$9.8B (+32% YoY) with non-GAAP gross margin of ~55%. SUM is expected to moderate slightly (49% vs 51%) as operating margin dips seasonally. TTM OP QoQ is expected to decelerate to ~+13% as the sequential revenue decline (-5% QoQ) reflects normal seasonality in client/gaming. However, TTM OP continues its strong upward trajectory toward ~$7B. Neutral to mildly bullish — the revenue guidance of $9.8B exceeded the $9.38B consensus, but the lack of specific AI revenue targets and China uncertainty weighed on market confidence, contributing to the post-earnings selloff.

Management Guidance Summary

Short-Term (Q1 2026, Jan-Mar 2026)

  • Revenue: ~$9.8B +/- $300M (+32% YoY), above consensus of $9.38B
  • Non-GAAP Gross Margin: ~55%, up 130bps YoY
  • Operating Expenses: ~$3.05B
  • China MI308 Revenue: ~$100M included in guidance (down from ~$390M in Q4)
  • Key commentary: "Second half a bit subseasonal to first half... even with PC market down, we believe we can grow our PC business" (Lisa Su). Data center expected to grow sequentially in Q1.

Long-Term (Full Year / Multi-Year)

  • Revenue CAGR target: >35% over next 3-5 years
  • EPS target: >$20 annual EPS in strategic timeframe
  • Data center growth: >60% annually over next 3-5 years
  • Margin trajectory: Expanding; MI450 ramp in H2 2026 expected to improve gross margins
  • AI GPU roadmap: MI450 launching H2 2026, MI500 (2nm) in 2027
  • Strategic priorities: OpenAI multi-gigawatt deployment starting H2 2026, Helios rack-scale systems, EPYC server share gains, enterprise AI expansion

Opportunities & Challenges

Opportunities

  • Data center revenue at record $5.4B in Q4, up 39% YoY with EPYC and Instinct momentum
  • OpenAI partnership for multi-year, multi-gigawatt GPU deployment starting H2 2026
  • Client revenue surging +34% YoY with record Ryzen ASPs and commercial share gains
  • MI350 ramping with 8 of top 10 AI companies deploying Instinct GPUs
  • TTM FCF/OP reached 103% in Sep '25, demonstrating strong cash conversion
  • EPYC cloud instances exceeded 1,600 (+50% YoY) with 500+ new instances in 2025

Challenges

  • China export controls creating ongoing revenue uncertainty ($100M vs $390M QoQ decline)
  • Stock fell 17% post-Q4 earnings despite record results, reflecting elevated expectations
  • Gaming semi-custom revenue facing structural decline as console cycle matures
  • Operating expenses up 42% YoY, requiring continued investment in AI R&D
  • PC market TAM potentially contracting from commodity and memory cost inflation
  • Embedded segment stagnating at ~$900M quarterly with -3% FY2025 decline

Upside to Earnings & Multiples

Near-Term (0-6 months)

Q1 2026 guidance of ~$9.8B exceeded consensus of $9.38B, suggesting continued fundamental momentum. Non-GAAP gross margin expanding to ~55% from 54% year-ago indicates improving product mix. Data center sequential growth in Q1 despite typical seasonality signals strong EPYC and Instinct demand. The post-earnings 17% selloff creates potential for a relief rally if Q1 results exceed midpoint guidance. Near-term EPS upside of 5-8% vs consensus is plausible given recent beat history.

Medium-Term (6-18 months)

MI450 launch in H2 2026 represents a significant product cycle catalyst, expected to improve gross margins and compete more directly for hyperscaler AI workloads. The OpenAI multi-gigawatt deployment starting H2 2026 could meaningfully accelerate Data Center GPU revenue toward "tens of billions" by 2027. EPYC Turin platform ramp across 150+ OEM platforms driving server share gains. Embedded segment recovery expected with inventory digestion completing, providing an additional revenue tailwind.

Long-Term (18+ months)

Management's >35% revenue CAGR and >$20 EPS targets imply significant operating leverage ahead. MI500 on 2nm process technology (2027) positions AMD competitively in next-gen AI accelerators. Data center >60% annual growth trajectory would transform AMD into a $50B+ annual revenue company. Helios rack-scale AI systems expand AMD's addressable market beyond discrete GPUs. Enterprise AI adoption is still in early innings, with commercial EPYC deployments doubling YoY.

Potential Catalysts

Positive
  • MI450 launch driving hyperscaler GPU wins in H2 2026
  • OpenAI multi-gigawatt deployment accelerating AI revenue
  • EPYC server share gains expanding above 30% market share
Negative
  • China export restrictions tightening further on AI chip sales
  • Gaming semi-custom revenue declining as console cycle ends
  • PC market contraction from memory cost inflation reducing client revenue

Latest Quarter Results

Q4 2025 (Oct-Dec 2025) — Reported Feb 3, 2026

Metric Reported YoY vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $10.27B +34% Beat 6.4% ($9.65B est) ~$9.8B (+32% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $1.53 +40% Beat 15.9% ($1.32 est) —
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) 57% (55% excl. MI308 reversal) +300bps — ~55%
Stock Reaction -17% (next day, Feb 4) — — —

Opportunities

  • Record quarterly revenue of $10.27B with Data Center at record $5.4B (+39% YoY) driven by EPYC Turin and Instinct GPU momentum
  • Client revenue grew +34% YoY to $3.1B with record desktop revenue and commercial sales up >40% YoY
  • Gaming revenue rebounded +50% YoY to $843M on Radeon RX 9000 series and holiday demand
  • OpenAI 6-gigawatt MI450-based deployment secured, with MI450 on track for H2 2026 launch

Challenges

  • Stock plunged 17% despite record beat, as investors wanted stronger Q1 guidance and specific AI revenue targets
  • China MI308 revenue dropping from ~$390M in Q4 to ~$100M in Q1 2026 due to tightening export controls
  • Gaming semi-custom revenue faces significant double-digit declines as console cycle enters seventh year
  • PC market headwinds expected in FY2026 from component cost inflation pressuring consumer demand

Previous 3 Qtrs Analysis

Q3 2025 (Jul-Sep 2025) — Reported Nov 4, 2025

Metric Reported YoY vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $9.25B +36% Beat 5.8% ($8.74B est) ~$9.6B (+25% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $1.20 +30% Beat 2.6% ($1.17 est) —
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) 54% Flat — ~54.5%
Stock Reaction -3.7% (after hours) — — —

Opportunities

  • Record quarterly revenue of $9.25B with broad-based growth across segments
  • Data center revenue hit record $4.3B (+22% YoY) on EPYC and MI350 momentum
  • Gaming revenue surged +181% YoY to $1.3B driven by semi-custom and Radeon
  • OpenAI partnership announced for multi-gigawatt Instinct deployment

Challenges

  • Stock fell 3.7% despite beat, reflecting investor concerns over AI growth trajectory
  • Embedded revenue declined -8% YoY to $857M amid inventory digestion
  • Higher inventory levels raised questions about demand sustainability
  • Q4 guidance of ~$9.6B (+25% YoY) implied deceleration from Q3's 36% growth

Q2 2025 (Apr-Jun 2025) — Reported Aug 5, 2025

Metric Reported YoY vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $7.69B +32% Beat 3.6% ~$8.7B (+28% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $0.48 -30% Miss 2.3% —
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) 43% (54% adj.) -10pp (incl. charges) — ~54%
Stock Reaction -6.3% (after hours) — — —

Opportunities

  • Record total revenue of $7.69B with Client revenue at record $2.5B (+67% YoY)
  • Strong Q3 guidance of $8.7B (+28% YoY) exceeded expectations
  • Gaming revenue surged +73% YoY to $1.1B on semi-custom and Radeon demand
  • MI400 series generating strong customer interest for large-scale 2026 deployments

Challenges

  • ~$800M inventory charge from MI308 export controls crushed reported margins and EPS
  • Data center revenue growth decelerated to +14% YoY vs +57% in Q1
  • Embedded revenue declined -4% YoY to $824M with continued softness
  • China GPU revenue outlook highly uncertain with license applications under review

Q1 2025 (Jan-Mar 2025) — Reported May 6, 2025

Metric Reported YoY vs Consensus Next Q Guidance
Revenue $7.44B +36% Beat 4.2% ($7.13B est) ~$7.4B (+27% YoY)
EPS (Non-GAAP) $0.96 +45% Beat 2.1% ($0.94 est) —
Gross Margin (Non-GAAP) 54% +200bps — 43% (incl. ~$800M charge)
Stock Reaction +4.9% (after hours) — — —

Opportunities

  • Data center revenue surged +57% YoY to $3.7B led by EPYC and Instinct GPU demand
  • Client revenue jumped +68% YoY to $2.3B with record Ryzen ASPs
  • MI350 sampling began; Oracle committed to multi-billion-dollar MI355x rollout
  • Over 150 EPYC Turin OEM platforms expected to ramp throughout 2025

Challenges

  • US export restrictions on MI308 expected to reduce FY2025 revenue by ~$1.5B
  • Q2 guidance included ~$800M inventory charge, pressuring reported margins to ~43%
  • Gaming revenue declined -30% YoY to $647M on console cycle weakness
  • Embedded revenue flat at $823M, continued inventory digestion in industrial markets

Data Sources

Disclaimer: This analysis is generated from publicly available earnings materials and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice. Always verify information with official company filings and consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.