What Metrics Move Stocks
| Mar '24 Q1 2024 |
Jun '24 Q2 2024 |
Sep '24 Q3 2024 |
Dec '24 Q4 2024 |
Mar '25 Q1 2025 |
Jun '25 Q2 2025 |
Sep '25 Q3 2025 |
Dec '25 Q4 2025 |
Mar '26 (E) Q1 2026 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price | $180 | $193 | $186 | $219 | $190 | $219 | $220 | $231 | $210 |
| Stock QoQ | +19% | +7% | -4% | +18% | -13% | +15% | 0% | +5% | -9% |
| Revenue YoY | 13% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
| Op Margin | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| SUM=RevYoY + OM | 23% | 20% | 22% | 22% | 20% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| TTM Op Profit ($M) | $71,621 | $78,207 | $83,934 | $90,604 | $92,430 | $96,741 | $100,566 | $103,742 | $106,749 |
| TTM OP QoQ | +18% | +9% | +7% | +8% | +2% | +5% | +4% | +3% | +3% |
| TTM FCF/OP | 64% | 62% | 51% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 7% | N/A |
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.7x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | N/A |
(E) = Expected/Estimated | Amazon FYE = December
Trend Analysis
- Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Over 8 quarters (Mar '24 to Dec '25), AMZN stock rose ~28% ($180 to $231) while TTM OP grew ~45% ($71.6B to $103.7B). The stock meaningfully underperformed TTM OP growth, reflecting multiple contraction. Investors are repricing the massive capex ramp ($200B guided for 2026) that depresses free cash flow conversion — TTM FCF/OP collapsed from 64% to just 7%. Despite strong operating profit growth, the market is discounting the returns timeline on AI infrastructure spending.
- Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks TTM OP QoQ acceleration/deceleration. The +18% stock rally in Dec '24 coincided with TTM OP QoQ of +8% (near its peak). The -13% stock drop in Mar '25 aligned with TTM OP QoQ decelerating sharply to +2%. SUM=RevYoY + OM has been relatively stable at 20-25%, providing a floor but not differentiating quarters. The collapsing FCF/OP ratio (64% to 7%) has been a persistent overhang, limiting upside even when revenue reaccelerates.
- Next Quarter Outlook: Management guides Q1 2026 revenue of $173.5-178.5B (+11-15% YoY) with operating income of $16.5-21.5B. SUM is expected to remain stable at ~25%. TTM OP QoQ should hold at +3% as the base effect normalizes. The $200B capex plan for 2026 will keep FCF/OP depressed. Neutral to mildly bearish near-term — while revenue growth reaccelerated to 14% and AWS hit 24% growth, the massive capex commitment weighs on free cash flow and valuation multiples until AI monetization inflects.