| Mar '24 Q1 2024 |
Jun '24 Q2 2024 |
Sep '24 Q3 2024 |
Dec '24 Q4 2024 |
Mar '25 Q1 2025 |
Jun '25 Q2 2025 |
Sep '25 Q3 2025 |
Dec '25 Q4 2025 |
Mar '26 (E) Q1 2026 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price | $180 | $193 | $186 | $219 | $190 | $219 | $220 | $231 | $210 |
| Stock QoQ | +19% | +7% | -4% | +18% | -13% | +15% | 0% | +5% | -9% |
| Revenue YoY | 13% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
| Op Margin | 11% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| SUM=RevYoY + OM | 23% | 20% | 22% | 22% | 20% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| TTM Op Profit ($M) | $71,621 | $78,207 | $83,934 | $90,604 | $92,430 | $96,741 | $100,566 | $103,742 | $106,749 |
| TTM OP QoQ | +18% | +9% | +7% | +8% | +2% | +5% | +4% | +3% | +3% |
| TTM FCF/OP | 64% | 62% | 51% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 11% | 7% | N/A |
| Debt/EBITDA | 1.7x | 1.5x | 1.4x | 1.3x | 1.3x | 1.0x | 1.0x | 1.0x | N/A |
(E) = Expected/Estimated | Amazon FYE = December
Q1 2026 operating income guidance midpoint of $19.0B exceeds consensus of ~$18.2B, suggesting potential for another beat. AWS at 24% growth with $244B backlog provides strong visibility. Advertising growth of 23% is a high-margin revenue stream that directly drops to the bottom line. However, the $200B capex announcement creates a near-term valuation overhang as investors model out FCF impact. EPS beat potential of 3-5% exists if AWS maintains 24%+ growth trajectory and retail margins hold.
AWS is at a critical inflection point — capacity constraints have limited growth, but the massive infrastructure buildout should unlock pent-up demand from the $244B backlog. Custom chips (Trainium2, Graviton) at $10B+ run rate improve AWS unit economics relative to third-party GPU providers. North America retail margin has expanded from 5.8% to 9.0% over the past year, with further gains from robotics and same-day delivery efficiencies. International profitability is inflecting, with the segment now generating $1B+ quarterly operating income versus near-breakeven a year ago.
Amazon's $200B capex investment positions it as a foundational infrastructure provider for the AI era, similar to its role in cloud computing a decade ago. The advertising business ($68.6B in 2025) continues growing 20%+ and could approach $100B, rivaling Google's ad revenue. Project Kuiper satellite internet opens an entirely new TAM. Rufus AI assistant demonstrates Amazon's ability to embed AI directly into commerce, driving measurable incremental revenue ($12B annualized). If Amazon achieves even modest returns on its AI infrastructure, the earnings power of the platform in 3-5 years is significantly underestimated.
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $213.4B | +14% | Beat ($211.3B est) | $173.5-178.5B (+11-15% YoY) |
| EPS | $1.95 | +3% | Miss ($1.97 est) | — |
| Operating Margin | 11.7% | +40bps YoY | — | OI $16.5-21.5B |
| Stock Reaction | -4% (after hours) | — | — | — |
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $180.2B | +13% | Beat 1.4% ($177.8B est) | $206-213B (+10-13% YoY) |
| EPS | $1.95 | +36% | Beat 25% ($1.56 est) | — |
| Operating Income | $17.4B ($21.7B adj.) | Flat (adj. +25%) | — | $21.0-26.0B |
| AWS Revenue | $33.0B | +20% | Beat | — |
| Stock Reaction | -3.2% (after hours) | — | — | — |
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $167.7B | +13% | Beat 3.5% ($162.1B est) | $174-179.5B (+10-13% YoY) |
| EPS | $1.68 | +33% | Beat 26% ($1.33 est) | — |
| Operating Income | $19.2B | +31% | Beat ($17.0B est) | $15.5-20.5B |
| AWS Revenue | $30.9B | +17.5% | — | — |
| Stock Reaction | -8.3% (next day) | — | — | — |
| Metric | Reported | YoY | vs Consensus | Next Q Guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $155.7B | +9% | Beat ~2% | $164-170B (+9-13% YoY) |
| EPS | $1.59 | +62% | Beat 17% ($1.36 est) | — |
| Operating Income | $18.4B | +20% | Beat | $13.0-17.5B |
| AWS Revenue | $29.3B | +17% | — | — |
| Stock Reaction | -2% (after hours) | — | — | — |