What Metrics Move Stocks
| Mar '24 Q2 FY24 |
Jun '24 Q3 FY24 |
Sep '24 Q4 FY24 |
Dec '24 Q1 FY25 |
Mar '25 Q2 FY25 |
Jun '25 Q3 FY25 |
Sep '25 Q4 FY25 |
Dec '25 Q1 FY26 |
Mar '26 (E) Q2 FY26 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price | $171 | $210 | $232 | $250 | $222 | $205 | $255 | $272 | $278 |
| Stock QoQ | -11% | +23% | +11% | +8% | -11% | -8% | +24% | +7% | +2% |
| Revenue YoY | -4% | +5% | +6% | +4% | +5% | +10% | +8% | +16% | +16% |
| Op Margin | 31% | 30% | 31% | 34% | 31% | 30% | 32% | 35% | 32% |
| SUM=RevYoY + OM | 26% | 34% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 40% | 40% | 51% | 48% |
| TTM Op Profit ($M) | $129,443 | $132,049 | $134,904 | $137,652 | $139,603 | $142,752 | $145,913 | $154,241 | $160,343 |
| TTM OP QoQ | 0% | +2% | +2% | +2% | +1% | +2% | +2% | +6% | +4% |
| TTM FCF/OP | 79% | 79% | 81% | 71% | 71% | 67% | 68% | 80% | N/A |
| Debt/EBITDA | 0.8x | 0.8x | 0.9x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.7x | 0.6x | N/A |
(E) = Expected/Estimated | Apple FYE = September
Trend Analysis
- Stock vs TTM OP (8 Quarters): Over 8 quarters (Mar '24 to Dec '25), AAPL stock rose ~59% ($171 to $272) while TTM OP grew ~19% ($129.4B to $154.2B). The stock significantly outperformed TTM OP growth, reflecting substantial multiple expansion. This is driven by the market pricing in the iPhone 17 super-cycle, accelerating Services monetization, and AI/Apple Intelligence narrative commanding a premium valuation.
- Stock QoQ Drivers: Stock QoQ most closely tracks SUM (RevYoY + OM) acceleration. When SUM accelerated from 40% to 51% in Dec '25, stock rose +7%. When SUM decelerated from 38% to 36% in Mar '25, stock fell -11%. TTM OP QoQ acceleration from +2% to +6% in Dec '25 also correlated with positive stock movement. The TTM FCF/OP recovery from 68% to 80% in Dec '25 provided additional support.
- Next Quarter Outlook: Management guides Q2 FY26 revenue growth of 13-16% YoY with gross margin of 48-49%. SUM is expected to moderate slightly (48% vs 51%) as operating margin normalizes from the holiday peak. TTM OP QoQ is expected to decelerate from +6% to ~+4% as the base effect normalizes. However, TTM OP continues its upward trajectory ($160B+). Mildly bullish — revenue acceleration persists above trend, and guidance beat analyst expectations ($107.8-110.7B vs consensus $104.8B).